BNEF sees investment in small-scale PV at USD 2.2trn in 2015-2040

Between now and 2040 about USD 2.2 trillion (EUR 2trl) will be invested in small local photovoltaic (PV) systems, such as solar rooftops, globally, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) projects.

According to the New Energy Outlook 2015 (NEO 2015), released today, there will be a 17-fold jump in the global capacity of rooftop, building-integrated and local PV systems to almost 1.8 TW in 2040 from 104 GW in 2014. That surge will be possible thanks to an expected 47% fall in the solar cost per megawatt, in turn due to higher conversion efficiencies and new materials and technologies.

Overall solar investment, both small- and large-scale, by 2040 will amount to some USD 3.7 trillion. The global utility-scale PV capacity will rise 24-fold to 1.9 TW, BNEF says.

As for the other clean technologies, the research company is guiding for a five-fold rise in onshore wind to 1.8 TW globally; a 25-fold jump for offshore wind to 198 GW; and a 17-fold surge to 858 GW in flexible capacity needed for the balancing of variable renewable sources such as batteries, demand response and fast ramp-up gas generation.

BNEF says that between now and 2040 the total investment in global power generation will amount to roughly USD 12.2 trillion, with renewables accounting for two thirds of the total. Despite the rise in clean capacity, fossil fuels will still account for 44% of world generation in 2040, as compared to 67% in 2014.

"[..] coal will continue to play a big part in world power, with emissions continuing to rise for another decade and a half, unless further radical policy action is taken,” said Michael Liebreich, chairman of the advisory board at BNEF. According to the long-term forecast, there will be enough existing fossil-fuel plants and enough investment in new coal capacity in developing countries to ensure that global carbon dioxide emissions keep rising to 2029. Emissions will then decline, but in 2040 they will still be 13% above 2014 levels.

(USD 1 = EUR 0.889)

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