Brazil could have 96 GW of offshore wind in ambitious 2050 scenario

Turbine foundations in place for the Triton Knoll offshore wind project. Image by Triton Knoll (www.tritonknoll.co.uk)

Brazil could deploy between 16 GW and 96 GW of offshore wind power generating capacity by 2050 to complement its hydroelectric fleet, according to a new multi-scenario study that was conducted by DNV on behalf of the World Bank Group.

A report based on this study was released this week, providing a vision for a future under three different growth scenarios: Base Case; Intermediate; and Ambitious. The following table shows the amount of offshore wind generation Brazil could reach by 2050 in each of these scenarios.

Scenario	Capacity by 2050	Estimated share of the generation mix
Base Case	16 GW	3%
Intermediate	32 GW	6%
Ambitious	96 GW	20%

DNV’s study has shown that Brazil’s offshore wind potential tops 1,200 GW, including 480 GW from fixed and 748 GW from floating foundations. This resource is strategically located near demand centres, it notes.

It is estimated that the development of the sector could potentially generate up to 516,000 full-time equivalent jobs and contribute USD 168 billion (EUR 154bn) in national gross value added under the Ambitious scenario.

The report also lists a number of challenges such as the high initial cost, the complexity around financing and procurement, the need for substantial grid investments, and environmental and social considerations. It points out that these obstacles could be overcome with strategic planning, collaboration, and targeted investments.

Nevertheless, the success of the sector depends on establishing a long-term energy strategy, it adds.

(USD 1.0 = EUR 0.916)

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