Bulgaria expects up to 1.5 GW of new solar capacity in 2024

Bulgaria anticipates connecting between 1 GW and 1.5 GW of new solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity to the power grid in 2024, the director of the Central Dispatch Office of Electricity System Operator (ESO) said on Tuesday at an energy summit in Sofia.

This will bring the total installed solar capacity across the country to about 4.5 GW, Dimitar Zarchev said during a panel discussion.

Thus, Bulgaria is set to continue the rapid solar deployment witnessed in 2023 when new solar installations exceeded 1 GW. According to estimates by the Association for Production, Storage, and Trading of Electricity (APSTE), the Balkan country has nearly tripled its installed solar capacity, rising from just over 1 GW at the end of 2020 to nearly 3 GW by the end of 2023.

However, this rapid expansion brings new challenges, as oversupply is expected to begin as early as March, necessitating measures to manage the surplus, Zarchev noted.

The influx of solar energy is expected to result in negative prices, which can be addressed through a market-driven mechanism. This approach offers a more sustainable solution compared to implementing production constraints, Zarchev added.

The swift growth of solar energy presents challenges also for the power grid. Karel Kral, CEO of energy group Electrohold, advocates for grid modernisation through the introduction of flexible tariffs to incentivise consumption during sunny periods.

According to Ivan Ivanov, chairman of Bulgaria's Energy and Water Regulatory Commission, tariffs can serve as a tool, but substantial investments in power grid development will predominantly depend on EU funds. Ivanov also noted that administrative barriers to connecting new power plants have been largely eliminated.

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