China to reach 1,720 GW of solar and wind by 2025, says GlobalData

China is expected to exceed its 2030 solar and wind energy target already in 2025, when its solar and wind capacity is projected to reach 1,720 GW, GlobalData said today.

By that year, the country is expected to have 1,104.6 GW of cumulative solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity, 560.8 GW of onshore wind and 54.7 GW of offshore wind. Together, this is significantly above China’s initial 1,200 GW target set for 2030.

In 2023, the country reached 609.5 GW of PV capacity and 408.1 GW and 37.7 GW of onshore and offshore wind, respectively. The shares of these technologies in the capacity mix were 20.9%, 14% and 1.3%, respectively.

“By 2030, it is projected that solar PV will represent 41.8% of the country's total power capacity mix. Additionally, onshore and offshore wind are anticipated to hold shares of 16.8% and 2.1%, respectively,” said Sudeshna Sarmah, power analyst at GlobalData.

According to GlobalData’s report, entitled China Power Market Size, Trends, Regulations, Competitive Landscape and Forecast, 2024-2035, the main drivers of the early achievement of the targets include financial incentives and policy support.

“Despite considerable advancements in renewable capacity development, China continues to depend heavily on thermal power,” Sarmah said, adding that the reliance on coal-based power generation presents challenges related to pollution and a risk of demand-supply shortfall if China cannot maintain coal imports from Indonesia.

Insufficient grid infrastructure, however, is a key obstacle to renewables expansion.

“It is imperative that the government give precedence to the development of grid infrastructure and the advancement of energy storage systems, with the objective of gradually diminishing its dependence on thermal power,” Sarmah said.

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