Countries can set path to tripling renewables goal in new NDCs - IEA

Countries have a chance over the coming months to set a path towards achieving the COP28 goal of tripling global renewables capacity by 2030 through their new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the International Energy Agency (IEA) says.

The organisation on Tuesday released a report that tracks progress toward the COP28 pledge. It shows that very few countries have explicitly set 2030 targets for installed renewable energy capacity in their existing NDCs under the Paris Agreement. These targets amount to 1,300 GW, or only 12% of the global tripling pledge, which calls for at least 11,000 GW by 2030. Yet, countries’ domestic ambitions are for almost 8,000 GW of global installed renewable capacity by 2030, meaning that if these were included in the new NDCs they would represent 70% of what is needed by 2030.

Countries are expected to submit new NDCs next year, including revised ambitions for 2030 and new goals for 2035.

Meeting the global goal of tripling renewable power by 2030 will require both higher ambitions and accelerated implementation.

“At COP28, nearly 200 countries pledged to triple the world’s renewable power capacity this decade, which is one of the critical actions to keep alive hopes of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. This report makes clear that the tripling target is ambitious but achievable – though only if governments quickly turn promises into plans of action,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol.

In 2023, the world added almost 560 GW of renewable capacity, up by an unprecedented 64% from 2022, led by China. China is expected to surpass its 2030 target of 1,200 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind this year, says the report.

Challenges to renewables deployment include lengthy project permitting, inadequate grid investments, the need to integrate variable renewables fast and cost-efficiently, and high financing costs, especially in emerging and developing economies. The report proposes targeted actions that clusters of countries can take to tackle these hurdles.

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