E-fuels could scale up to over 1 billion gallons by 2030 - BNEF

The power-to-liquids (PtL) pathway to produce e-fuels made from hydrogen and captured carbon dioxide (CO2) could scale up from several pilot plants in 2024 to an annual capacity of over one billion gallons (3.785 billion litres) in 2030, according to BloombergNEF.

E-fuels offer a decarbonisation solution for hard-to-abate transport sectors like shipping and aviation.

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The research firm this week said that there are more than 30 projects in the pipeline planned to come online by 2030 plus several more with unscheduled start dates, representing a total production capacity of over 1.3 billion gallons a year.

North America accounts for 615 million gallons of the planned capacity by 2030 thanks to a big project by HIF Global in Texas, while Europe accounts for 350 million gallons.

BloombergNEF predicts that the expansion of e-fuels will be handicapped by costs. According to it, by 2050, e-kerosene will remain more expensive than traditional jet fuel combined with direct air capture to offset emissions.