EU lagging behind climate targets by a decade, WoodMac says

The European Union (EU) will not be able to achieve its climate targets until well into the 2060s without urgent action, Wood Mackenzie says in a new report dedicated to its energy transition outlook for the region.

The research and consultancy group estimates that the Bloc is unlikely to fulfill its net zero pledge by 2050, falling short in terms of emissions by 684 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa).

The report, titled “EU27: Energy Transition Outlook”, notes that the EU would even need to meet its net zero objectives by 2048 in order to offset the emissions of other regions, based on Wood Mackenzie’s net zero 2050 scenario.

Lindsey Entwistle, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie and lead author of the report, explained this lag with the Bloc’s shifting focus to energy security and economic stability.

“The good news is that these goals align for the EU in the longer-term and the wider industry is seeing the Union double down on efforts to streamline policy and strengthen cross-border infrastructure for power, carbon capture and low-carbon hydrogen. Targeted investment in these areas could accelerate the EU’s transition and achieve net zero by 2050,” she added.

According to the report, which presents three different routes, about 82% of domestic power supply is projected to be met with renewables by 2050 in the base case, while in the net-zero scenario, renewables capacity rises by an additional 70%. The jump from the base to the net-zero scenario will require an extra 10 GW per year and Entwistle says that reducing bottlenecks will be crucial in this regard.

The research group’s base case also indicates that hydrogen will grow to nearly 10% of industrial energy demand by 2050 in the EU and thus displace the equivalent of 16% of the current fossil fuel consumption in the sector.

The report points at the Nordics as a region with a solid reliance on clean energy, with Sweden operating on 100% low-carbon generation (66% renewable) and Finland covering its needs at 98%. For comparison, Poland and Germany use 66% and 47% of fossil fuels for power generation.

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