Floating wind sector expects less than 3 GW by 2030 - survey

TetraSpar floating offshore wind project. Image by RWE.

Participants in the floating offshore wind sector are taking a more realistic view of near-term growth after the enthusiasm in the wake of the 2022 leasing rounds and target establishment has waned, according to Westwood Global Energy Group.

A survey by the market research and consultancy firm, unveiled on Wednesday, shows that most respondents, 54%, expect the world to have less than 3 GW of operational capacity by 2030. For Europe, the main projection is for between 0.5 GW and 2 GW.

The poll, prepared together with Norwegian Offshore Wind and World Forum Offshore Wind (WFO), covered 184 floating offshore wind stakeholders. Among European respondents, 42% are less optimistic about the floating offshore wind sector than they were two years ago, compared with 30% for non-Europe. Globally, 44% of developers are more optimistic about the sector than two years ago, while this percentage is just under a quarter for supply chain respondents.

The survey identifies a lack of standardisation of floating technology, manufacturing capability and capacity, and port infrastructure as the major hurdles to floating offshore wind progress.

“These are significant and familiar challenges for an industry in infancy, as first-movers look to establish reliable supply chains and weigh up investment risk. But despite these known obstacles and a more realistic picture of near-term growth, optimism hasn’t wavered as much as anticipated,” commented David Linden, Head of Energy Transition, Westwood.

“The pressure is really on for governments to step up and de-risk projects by speeding up permitting and establish financial support mechanisms,” added Arvid Nesse, CEO, Norwegian Offshore Wind.