Germany could import 100 TWh of green hydrogen by pipeline by 2035

Germany could import between 60 TWh and 100 TWh of green hydrogen annually via pipelines by the mid-2030s if the necessary infrastructure is developed in time, according to a recent study published by think tank Agora Energiewende.

Hydrogen pipelines from the wind-rich North and Baltic Sea countries are considered the most suitable import corridors, as they bypass transit nations, simplifying coordination efforts and enabling quicker implementation. Additionally, these routes also benefit from favourable financing terms in the exporting countries.

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Establishing connections to Denmark and Norway by 2030 is feasible, according to Agora Energiewende's researchers. However, ensuring secured purchase volumes in Germany in the coming years is essential for making timely investment decisions for the construction of these pipelines.

Alternatively, corridors from southern Europe and North Africa also have the potential to supply hydrogen by the 2030s, although they require agreements with transit nations and potentially support from exporting countries to mitigate financing costs.

Pipelines are the most economical transport method for pure hydrogen over short and medium distances. Alongside domestic production, pipeline imports are considered essential for efficiently meeting a significant portion of Germany's hydrogen demand. However, the initial investment costs for hydrogen pipelines are considerable, although these can be minimised by converting existing natural gas pipelines and this is a viable option in many corridors.

In contrast, shipping pure hydrogen requires the use of intermediates and carries technological risks, resulting in higher costs.

The table below provides details about hydrogen transport costs in EUR per kilogram of hydrogen. (Source: Agora Energiewende)

The study concludes that pipeline imports could serve as a crucial element for meeting the projected new demand for hydrogen and derivatives under the national hydrogen strategy, estimated at 40 to 75 TWh in 2030. However, realising the full potential volume faces challenges such as the absence of a financing model for infrastructure expansion and ensuring stable demand within Germany. Ensuring secured hydrogen demand and establishing financing mechanisms for infrastructure are critical prerequisites for scaling up imports across all corridors.

When it comes to domestic green hydrogen production, Agora says that Germany can reach an installed electrolysis capacity of some 5 GW by 2030 based on the production projects and political instruments announced so far.