Global solar market to hit 65.6 GWp in 2019 - Lux

Aug 27, 2014 - The worldwide solar market is forecast to expand to 65.6 GWp in 2019 from 37.5 GWp in 2013, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% for the period, Lux Research said on Tuesday.

The market analyst's “Solar Market Size Update 2014: Reform for the Long Haul” report says that China will be mostly responsible for the market growth in the next five years after the addition of 11.8 GWp of photovoltaic (PV) capacity last year, followed by Japan and other emerging markets. In spite of the faster-than-expected improvement on the global solar market, the near-term forecast is being blurred by trade conflicts, also including China.

“With solar now fairly common in most parts of the world, it reaps the rewards of direct incentives but also faces uncertainty due to pressure on trade activity with China,” said senior analyst Matthew Feinstein.

Without taking into account the regulatory and other challenges, Lux Research estimates that the solar market in the Americas will grow the fastest at a CAGR of 16.3%. Fresh PV capacity additions in that region are projected to jump to 15.4 GWp in 2019 from 5.3 GWp in 2013. In the US alone, the market will expand to 11.7 GWp from 4.7 GWp, while in South America it will increase 10 times to 2.5 GWp in 2019. The Asia-Pacific region is to achieve a CAGR rate of 8.2% and be responsible for 50% of global demand.

Meanwhile, solar system costs are expected to fall by USD 0.36 (EUR 0.27) per watt peak for utility-scale installations and by USD 0.60/Wp for residential systems by 2019. Crystalline silicon (x-Si) will be the main technology used in the period under review with a market share of 84.6%, Lux said.

(USD 1.0 = EUR 0.760)

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