MENA's renewable capacity soars but still trails oil and gas

Countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) boosted their renewable energy capacity by 57% to 19 GW over a year and the growth rate is likely to continue but this is still far below the expansion necessary to replace oil and gas in power generation in the region.

Since May 2022, MENA countries have deployed 6.9 GW of large utility-scale solar and wind capacity with solar accounting for 6.7 GW of the total, a recent report by Global Energy Monitor shows. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is the clear leader with 3 GW of new additions, followed by Oman with 1.2 GW and Qatar with 0.8 GW.

Although deployment is accelerating, the capacity installed over the last year is only a fraction of what is required to replace the existing gas and oil power plants. To achieve complete decarbonisation of the electricity sector by 2050, the MENA region would need to add 19 GW of wind and solar energy annually, the report suggests.

The upward trajectory in renewables deployment is projected to persist next year as 9 GW of renewable energy projects currently in progress are slated for completion by the end of 2024.

MENA's PROSPECTIVE SOLAR & WIND CAPACITY SOARS 400%

Between mid-2022 and mid-2023, prospective large-scale solar and wind capacity in the region has expanded by an impressive 292 GW, reaching 361 GW in total. This represents a surge of over 400% compared to the potential projects identified the previous year and surpasses the combined total of prospective large-scale solar and wind capacity in the US and Canada.

However, only 6% of this potential capacity, or 23 GW, is under construction, and very likely to come online in the next few years while another 47%, or 171 GW, represent projects in the pre-construction phase with either financing, government permitting, land rights, or offtake agreements. The remaining 46% are initiatives that have just been announced and there is no certainty that they will be realised.

Oman takes the lead with 83 GW of prospective utility-scale solar and wind capacity, with 3% in construction, 79% in pre-construction, and 18% announced. Egypt comes next with 69 GW of prospective capacity, with 6% under construction, 72% in pre-construction, and 22% announced.

The report highlights that about 60% of the planned capacity is allocated for either producing green hydrogen or direct export. These hydrogen initiatives are substantial, with an average of 2.6 GW per stage, which is 14 times higher than the worldwide average, and their projected commissioning is in the distant future. This comes with greater risks and will not directly aid in reducing carbon emissions from local electricity consumption.

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