Offshore wind seen to top 520 GW globally by 2040, excl China

Global offshore wind installations, excluding those in mainland China, will top 520 GW by 2040, according to projections by Rystad Energy.

The energy research firm said last week that despite challenges such as inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions, the offshore wind sector increased its new capacity additions by 7% year-over-year in 2023 and is expected to grow them by 9% to more than 11 GW this year.

Floating wind capacity is seen to approach 90 GW by 2040, led by the UK, France and Portugal. Europe will account for more than 70% of global floating wind installations by that time, with Asia, excluding mainland China, to capture a share of 20%.

Supply chain constraints, however, could hamper floating wind’s progress in the short term and capacity is estimated to reach less than 7 GW by 2030. Increased government support is key to address these challenges, Rystad said.

In the bottom-fixed segment, the UK, Germany and the Netherlands are together forecast to account for a total of 150 GW of installed capacity by 2040. These market leaders will be followed by the US with less than 40 GW of capacity, with concerns that a potential win by Donald Trump in the upcoming US presidential elections could hinder offshore wind development.

The Americas, led by the US, will have close to 2 GW of installed capacity in 2025. Asia, excluding mainland China, will have 7 GW in 2025 and approach 28 GW by 2030. Europe is expected to have 41 GW by 2025 and more than 112 GW by 2030.

“The global offshore wind sector is experiencing robust growth, fueled by increased investment and auction activity. However, supply chain bottlenecks present significant challenges to the industry's further expansion. While ambitious targets boost investor confidence, it is crucial to address logistical issues to ensure that offshore wind can successfully take a key role in the energy transition. This will not only help the technology mature, but also foster a supportive ecosystem that inspires investor reliance,” said Petra Manuel, senior analyst, offshore wind at Rystad Energy.

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