Oversupply to trigger third polysilicon industry shakeout

The polysilicon industry is facing a third shakeout wave which will eliminate a capacity of up to 2,400,000 tonnes, according to Bernreuter Research.

This will be prompted by oversupply as the polysilicon shortage in 2021 and 2022 and consequent high spot prices has driven an influx of capacity in China. “If all new capacities were ramped up in 2024, oversupply would swell to 1.4 million tonnes,” explained Johannes Bernreuter, head of Bernreuter Research, which on Tuesday announced its Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027 report.

Chinese polysilicon market leader Tongwei plans to bring 575,000 tonnes of new production capacity online in 2024, compared to an expected market growth of up to 200,000 tonnes, said Bernreuter. According to him, “[w]ith its low manufacturing costs and proven product quality, Tongwei will push most, if not all, new entrants out of the market.”

Bernreuter projects that in 2024 the polysilicon price will go below the record low of USD 6.75 (EUR 6.17) per kg seen in June 2020. The industry previously suffered shakeouts in 2018-2020 and 2010-2013.

China’s share in global polysilicon production will rise further to 90% in 2023. The non-Chinese manufacturers Wacker, OCI, Hemlock Semiconductor and REC Silicon however will not be impacted by the shakeout because of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act in the US, which has created a higher-price market for non-Chinese producers.

The polysilicon shakeout will come despite the rapid growth in the solar industry with Bernreuter forecasting that annual photovoltaic (PV) installations will increase from 425 GW in 2023 to 1,100 GW in 2027.

The fast expansion however will fuel strong demand for silicon metal, which is made of quartz (SiO2). “The consequence is inevitable: Quartz for silicon metal will run short in the second half of this decade,” said Bernreuter.

Bernreuter Research predicts 425 GW DC in global PV additions in 2023.

(USD 1 = EUR 0.913)

Choose your newsletter by Renewables Now. Join for free!