US production capacity for sustainable aviation fuel to grow - EIA

Production capacity of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in the United States could increase from around 2,000 barrels per day (b/d) to nearly 30,000 b/d in 2024 if all announced capacity additions come on line. Developers expect Phillips 66’s Rodeo Renewed project to produce up to about 10,000 b/d of SAF beginning this summer, and they expect Diamond Green Diesel’s Port Arthur SAF project to produce about 15,000 b/d of SAF by the end of the year.

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), July 2024, and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Moderated Transaction System (EMTS)
Note: Other Biofuels includes sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), renewable heating oil, renewable naphtha, renewable propane, renewable gasoline, and other emerging biofuels that are in various stages of development and commercialization. Data before 2021 come from EMTS.

SAF is an alternative to petroleum jet fuel. It’s produced from agricultural and waste feedstocks and is consumed in blends with petroleum jet fuel. Investments in SAF have increased due to the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), federal tax credits, and state programmes and tax credits incentivising use of the fuel. The White House also set a goal of meeting 100% of US aviation fuel demand with SAF by 2050. About 1.6 million b/d of petroleum jet fuel was consumed in the United States in 2023, and EIA projects US jet fuel demand in 2050 to exceed 2.0 million b/d in its 2023 Annual Energy Outlook.

EIA captures SAF production data in the Other Biofuels category of its Petroleum Supply Monthly. In addition to SAF, the Other Biofuels category includes renewable heating oil, renewable naphtha, renewable propane, renewable gasoline, and other emerging biofuels that are in various stages of development and commercialisation.

Historically, production of Other Biofuels in the United States has been minimal. However, because renewable naphtha and renewable propane are by-products of a growing renewable diesel industry, production of Other Biofuels has been growing as well. US production of Other Biofuels increased from just 2,000 b/d in 2020 to 19,000 b/d in 2023.

SAF production has historically comprised a small portion of Other Biofuels production because of restricted production capacity. At the beginning of 2024, US SAF production capacity was only around 2,000 b/d, with only two plants capable of producing SAF: World Energy’s plant in Paramount, California, and Montana Renewables’ plant in Great Falls, Montana.

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecasts that US production of Other Biofuels will increase by about 50% in 2024 and almost double from 2024 to 2025. It does not publish a forecast for each fuel that makes up the category.

The primary driver for its forecasted increase in Other Biofuels production—from 19,000 b/d in 2023 to 51,000 b/d in 2025—is increasing US SAF production capacity. Because EIA forecasts renewable diesel production to continue increasing, it also expects production of renewable diesel by-products to increase through 2025 and explain some of the growth in the Other Biofuels production forecast.

Principal contributor: Jimmy Troderman

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